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Post by wonk on Dec 13, 2012 19:43:54 GMT -8
Wow, five years, $25 million per? Holy shit. I think his numbers warrant a three year $75 million deal, but I figured each additional year would be around $10 million per, to guarantee him more money and minimize the team's risk. There was no way he was going to crack $100 million unless someone gave him a six year deal. This move has Dodger jealousy written all over it.
However, that is a pretty bad-ass move taking a rivals best player, and not giving that rival a chance to match the offer (Hamilton has repeatedly said he would allow the Rangers to match any offer). It cost them an extra year and $30 million for that gigantic middle finger tossed at the Rangers, but I'm sure it felt good for Moreno & Co.
After missing out on fucking everyone, and losing their best player, the Rangers are looking pretty average.
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Post by chud on Dec 14, 2012 12:07:41 GMT -8
Angels Rotation
Weaver
Wilson
Blanton
Hanson
Richards/Williams
Unless they make a move (trade for Dickey, sign Lohse or Jackson), that rotation does not scare me.
LAA play in an extremely pitcher friendly park. Texas, not so much. It is reasonable to anticipate that Hamilton's numbers will decline. Hunter (who played out of his mind last season) and Hamilton had similar numbers last year. Hunter (5.5) actually had a higher WAR than Hamilton (4.4). So will Hamilton really make the Angels that much better in 2013. I say no. What did happen is that the Rangers got worse.
I see this move as a win for the 2012 AL West Champion Oakland Athletics.
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Post by chud on Dec 14, 2012 12:08:47 GMT -8
Oops, excuse me. I should have said 2013 AL West Champion Oakland Athletics.
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Post by Drew on Dec 14, 2012 13:01:46 GMT -8
Didn't they do a study that found that of the three major US sports, total salary was least predictive of success in baseball? Which is astounding, but there you have it.
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Post by chud on Dec 14, 2012 13:11:57 GMT -8
Looks like Dickey is going to be either a Blue Jay, Ranger or Angel. Apparently Blue Jays are the front runner and I am my father's son.
Here's to hoping he lands in the AL East.
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Post by wonk on Dec 14, 2012 13:36:58 GMT -8
2012 AL West Champion Oakland Athletics. |
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Post by chud on Dec 14, 2012 13:48:56 GMT -8
Loving that that ended up at the top of the page!
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Post by wonk on Dec 14, 2012 13:50:39 GMT -8
Didn't they do a study that found that of the three major US sports, total salary was least predictive of success in baseball? Which is astounding, but there you have it. That's pretty easy to explain. The NFL has a salary cap. All the teams spend roughly the same amount, so a perennial winner like the Patriots aren't doing it because they spend more money, they are doing it because they are smarter than other teams. Baseball teams can basically spend whatever they want. There are going to be inept franchises with a high payroll (Mariners/Dodgers), and overachieving teams full of youngsters with low payroll (Athletics/Devil Rays). With the disparity between the highest and lowest payrolls being so large ($200 million to $50 million), idiocy plays a much larger part is swaying the results. |
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Post by chud on Dec 17, 2012 7:54:24 GMT -8
Drew to the Red Sux. Bring on the hot asian chicks!!!
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Post by chud on Dec 17, 2012 15:11:04 GMT -8
Nakajima it is. Great value deal for Oakland 2yr/6.5M with a third year option. This is actually the move I preferred. Wasn't sold on Drew and definitely not for 1yr/9.5M (which is what the BoSox gave him).
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Post by wonk on Dec 17, 2012 16:40:53 GMT -8
Notice how he hits every single pitch out of the ballpark. This should project well to MLB. I'm predicting 143 HRs next season.
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Post by wonk on Dec 17, 2012 21:47:44 GMT -8
Alex Anthopoulos is officially insane. I understand the enormous financial responsibility he took on with that Marlins trade (sort of), I understand giving a two year contract to the biggest pile of shit in baseball (sort of). But dishing out your top prospect, and your third best prospect, for the opportunity to pay a 38 year old knuckle ball pitcher $30 million over the next three years is absolutely atrocious. Giving up two of your top three prospects usually lands you a young bad-ass cost controlled starting pitcher.
This is a desperate attempt at ownership to be significant, and a desperate attempt by Mr. Anthopoulos to save his job. The Blue Jays window to win is next season. After that, they lose the best piece of the Marlins trade (Josh Johnson), and the Jose Reyes contract grows exponentially. Because the Marlins don't allow no trade clauses, they massively back loaded his contract to make him untradable. That means he made $10 million last season, $10 million next season, $16 million in 2014, and $22 million each of the next three years. OUCH.
What a season Dickey had. I'm still scratching my head how it happened, and I'm glad he got paid. Will his success continue beyond this season? Hopefully, but there is no fucking way he comes close to repeating his 2012 stats, not even close.
As for the A's, they had a ridiculously difficult schedule the last month of 2012 with much ground to make up, and they did it. I give part of the credit to Drew. He was outstanding defensively, and and OPS over .700 in an injury plagued year showed signs to come. They obviously got enormously outbid by the Red Sox, where free agents go to re-establish their offensive value. If the A's wanted him for $9.5 million, they would have picked up his $10 million option. They paid $1 million to decline it and make him available to anyone, which means they thought he was worth about $6 million. While I do like the Japanese dude's .850 OPS, I guess that would relate to around a .700 OPS in the show, which is what Drew already provided. And the Japanese dude is not going to be as great of a SS as Drew, no way.
It is exciting to see what he can do, I'll give him that. It's a low risk contract, and I was at least impressed that some of his HRs in the video I posted went to right field. The second to last HR he hit to center field was a legit shot, well over 400 feet, so I think he has at least double digit HR potential. His glove though?
At least the A's got that kid from the Padres who will routinely be a late innings defensive replacement.
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Post by stamper on Dec 18, 2012 8:28:46 GMT -8
The thing is, Dickey has been really, really good the past three seasons. I see little reason for Dickey not to continue that trend for the next three years. Sure he's 38, but he's also a knuckleballer. Phil and Joe Niekro both pitched till they were like 84. His contract, especially in the 2012 free agent market, is fairly conservative. As for what Toronto gave up for him? It's still way too soon to say it was a bad decision.
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Post by wonk on Dec 18, 2012 19:57:49 GMT -8
The thing is, Dickey has been really, really good the past three seasons. I see little reason for Dickey not to continue that trend for the next three years. Sure he's 38, but he's also a knuckleballer. Phil and Joe Niekro both pitched till they were like 84. You are overstating his worth over the last three years. Last season, in 34 starts, he was 20-6 with 230 Ks. The two previous years combined, he had 60 starts, and was 19-22 with 238 Ks. He doubled his K rate and won more games in 24 less starts. He came out of nowhere. It is typical that prospects get better with time, it is not typical 38 year old pitchers get better with time. That is why it is ridiculous to trade two of your three best prospects for the opportunity to pay a 38 year old knuckleball pitcher $30 over the next three years. I'm well aware knuckleball pitchers can throw until they are 55, but does that make them worth $10 million per season and top prospects? It's a knee jerk reaction designed to save the Gem's job if this outlandish spending spree doesn't work out. "Hey, he won the Cy Young, it was a great move on paper." As for what Toronto gave up for him? It's still way too soon to say it was a bad decision. You can use this comment to defend any trade. Dickey might lose his arm in a hunting accident, and he might be more valuable to the team by not throwing. "Wait and see," is a weak argument. Hell, I can start buying lottery tickets biweekly, then say I told you so if I ever win, but is that really a smart move? |
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Post by stamper on Dec 19, 2012 8:22:55 GMT -8
He was an absolute beast in 2012, no doubt. Will he put numbers like that again? Probably not. But...
While his win/loss records of 2010 and 2011 don't accurately show it, Dickey was still one hell of a pitcher - for a terrible team who could barely score runs, which probably costed him 5-7 wins over those two seasons. Additionally, his overall ERA was 3.08 and had a solid WAR.
If he can put up production like he did in 2010 and 2011 for a significantly better team, I see little reason to believe he can't win 15-17 games each year over the next 2 seasons, maybe 3. That alone is worth the 10 million per season.
Going back to the prospects...
Yeah, I got nothing more to add. Sometimes you trade away Charles Johnson and Juan Cruz and get a Tim Hudson in return... other times you trade away Neftali Felix, Elvis Andrus, Harrison and Saltalamacchia and get 1 1/2 seasons of Teixeira. You just never know.
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Post by badchoices on Dec 19, 2012 15:08:10 GMT -8
So the M's made a move. Vargas traded for Kendrys Morales. At first I was excited because we have a hitter that can produce and Vargas' homerun count will skyrocket with the new dimensions.
After a few minutes I realized that Morales pretty much got his work in at DH last year. Other than that, it would be first base for him. I guess we will see how Jesus Montero does being the main catcher for the season. Where does that leave Jaso? Platooning with Montero/Morales/Smoak? Smoak may finally be on his way out. Let's hope the real answer will show up after some more moves!
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Post by chud on Dec 19, 2012 16:39:46 GMT -8
This move just reinforces my hatred for the Mariners, the Angels and Vargas!
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Post by badchoices on Dec 19, 2012 17:06:27 GMT -8
This move just reinforces my hatred for the Mariners, the Angels and Vargas! You hate Vargas? Why is that? |
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Post by wonk on Dec 19, 2012 17:38:28 GMT -8
Going back to the prospects... Yeah, I got nothing more to add. Sometimes you trade away Charles Johnson and Juan Cruz and get a Tim Hudson in return... other times you trade away Neftali Felix, Elvis Andrus, Harrison and Saltalamacchia and get 1 1/2 seasons of Teixeira. You just never know. It was Charles Thomas, Juan Cruz, and Dan Meyer was the centerpiece in the Hudson deal (I'm not using google here, so maybe I'm off). That trade was basically a salary dump, but Meyer was a pretty solid prospect who fizzled. Surprisingly, he had a pretty outstanding season in relief with the Marlins recently. It was nowhere near as good as the salary dump trade of Mark Mulder to the Cardinals, a trade still paying dividends for the A's. |
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Post by wonk on Dec 19, 2012 18:35:53 GMT -8
So the M's made a move. Vargas traded for Kendrys Morales. At first I was excited because we have a hitter that can produce and Vargas' homerun count will skyrocket with the new dimensions. After a few minutes I realized that Morales pretty much got his work in at DH last year. Other than that, it would be first base for him. I guess we will see how Jesus Montero does being the main catcher for the season. Where does that leave Jaso? Platooning with Montero/Morales/Smoak? Smoak may finally be on his way out. Let's hope the real answer will show up after some more moves! Gotta feel bad for Jaso. I'll enjoy seeing his ass on the bench when they play the A's. It's really a pretty sweet deal for the Mariners though. Did you know Morales was fifth in MVP voting in 2009? His pace numbers were similar in 2010 before that hilarious leg injury. He's also much cheaper than Vargas, so the Mariners can afford to pay Jason Bay now. I don't get how this trade helps the Angels. I know there is value in innings eaters, but how boring is it to trade an impact bat for a soft tossing lefty who is making (a projected) $7 million? If I was an Angels fan, I would rather see what one of the kids can do and keep the surplus of bats to protect against injury. They could always trade him next summer if/when he regains his MVP type form. It seems like a rushed move. Weaver had an amazing year last year. If he regresses any, that Angels staff is one of the worst in the league. |
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