12345
Yapping Skunk Ape
Posts: 75
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Post by 12345 on Jan 10, 2018 17:16:58 GMT -8
I'll take a crack at it
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Post by Pea on Jan 10, 2018 17:33:48 GMT -8
12345 get an avatar.
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12345
Yapping Skunk Ape
Posts: 75
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Post by 12345 on Jan 10, 2018 17:40:21 GMT -8
If we look at % of crossovers, and not just the total #, then the festivals look like this:
Boston Calling 24.44% Hangout 9.83% Coachella 9.09% In Bloom 7.69% Bonnaroo 6.21% Shaky Knees 6.15% Gov Ball 6.00% Bottlerock 5.81%
Using these numbers which I believe will be more accurate is still going to over rate Boston Calling bands. If you find a band near the top that isn't on Boston Calling's lineup, then they are even more likely in my opinion.
Top 50 Predictions in order:
MANCHESTER ORCHESTRA THE KILLERS BROCKHAMPTON EMINEM WESTSIDE GUNN & CONWAY ALVVAYS NONAME PORTUGAL. THE MAN ST. VINCENT BELLY DANIEL CAESAR FLEET FOXES QUEENS OF THE STONE AGE KHALID POND JACK WHITE THE MENZINGERS MIKKY EKKO PUSSY RIOT BIG THIEF PERFUME GENIUS TYLER, THE CREATOR TASH SULTANA DIRTY PROJECTORS MAGGIE ROGERS PARAMORE THUNDERCAT CHARLY BLISS LILLIE MAE THE NATIONAL ALICE MERTON SIR SLY LANY RON GALLO GRETA VAN FLEET BLEACHERS TANK AND THE BANGAS (SANDY) ALEX G BRYSON TILLER CITIZEN FIELD REPORT JULIEN BAKER LEIKELI47 MOUNT KIMBIE ROYAL BLOOD STL GLD STORMZY TAUK TAYLOR BENNETT THE DECEMBERISTS THEE OH SEES
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12345
Yapping Skunk Ape
Posts: 75
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Post by 12345 on Jan 10, 2018 17:43:52 GMT -8
If we look at just the crossover numbers alone and ignore the percentage of the lineup (will give more value to larger lineups like Coachella, and less value to smaller lineups like Boston Calling):
TOP 50:
MANCHESTER ORCHESTRA BROCKHAMPTON EMINEM WESTSIDE GUNN & CONWAY DANIEL CAESAR ALVVAYS TASH SULTANA LANY NONAME PORTUGAL. THE MAN ST. VINCENT SIR SLY THE KILLERS BELLY FLEET FOXES RON GALLO KALI UCHIS KNOX FORTUNE MOSES SUMNEY THE REGRETTES MIKKY EKKO BIG THIEF PERFUME GENIUS TYLER, THE CREATOR BLEACHERS TANK AND THE BANGAS GRETA VAN FLEET KHALID POND JACOB BANKS ALISON WONDERLAND ALT-J CHROMEO ELOHIM FIRST AID KIT JAPANESE BREAKFAST JUNGLE SNAKEHIPS BLACKBEAR DEJ LOAF NOTHING BUT THIEVES ODESZA SAN HOLO SKIP MARLEY SZA PARAMORE THUNDERCAT MAGIC GIANT QUEENS OF THE STONE AGE JACK WHITE THE MENZINGERS
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Post by banana on Jan 10, 2018 17:45:36 GMT -8
Manchester Orchestra is playing Boston Calling and Botterock, so they will probably be at Sasquatch
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12345
Yapping Skunk Ape
Posts: 75
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Post by 12345 on Jan 10, 2018 17:49:01 GMT -8
Things like that need to be taken into account. My system is going to make bands playing both Bottlerock and Boston calling more likely than a band only playing 1 of the 2, when in reality that makes them less likely.
Also, I should note that this is based off of the info in Rigatoni's spreadsheet (he did most of the work, I just made a few formulas). However, I noticed a few small errors. For example the 3 following bands are on the sheet, but aren't checked off for any of the 8 festivals.
AMADOU & MARIAM COLIN ELMORE & THE DANVILLE TRAIN CRAIG FINN & THE UPTOWN CONTROLLERS
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Post by Pea on Jan 10, 2018 17:55:14 GMT -8
Excellent avatar!
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Post by Professor Pancakes on Jan 10, 2018 17:57:46 GMT -8
Manchester Orchestra is playing Boston Calling and Botterock, so they will probably be at Sasquatch You spelled The Killers wrong.
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12345
Yapping Skunk Ape
Posts: 75
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Post by 12345 on Jan 10, 2018 17:58:38 GMT -8
Manchester Orchestra and the Killers are the only 2 bands playing both Bottlerock and Boston Calling.
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Post by banana on Jan 10, 2018 18:02:14 GMT -8
Manchester Orchestra is playing Boston Calling and Botterock, so they will probably be at The Killers You spelled The Killers wrong. Fixed
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Post by Pea on Jan 10, 2018 18:10:24 GMT -8
I'm actually pretty bummed that Manchester Orchestra look to be ruled out. Their last album was fantastic.
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Post by davers on Jan 10, 2018 18:12:55 GMT -8
Manchester Orchestra and the Killers are the only 2 bands playing both Bottlerock and Boston Calling. I was going to ask if you could put an asterisk beside the bands playing Bottlerock and Boston Calling but I guess there aren't many. Probably safe to knock both of those off the list since I don't think either could do all three fests in three days.
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12345
Yapping Skunk Ape
Posts: 75
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Post by 12345 on Jan 10, 2018 18:26:22 GMT -8
This is what the top 50 (by percentage) would look like with all Boston Calling bands removed. Boston Calling having 11 crossovers out of a lineup of only 45 really skews the stats in favour of those bands, so it's interesting to look at it without them. The bands near the top of this list are quite likely in my opinion:
MIKKY EKKO TASH SULTANA ALICE MERTON SIR SLY LANY RON GALLO GRETA VAN FLEET BLEACHERS TANK AND THE BANGAS MELVV HALSEY THE STRUTS KALI UCHIS KNOX FORTUNE MOSES SUMNEY THE REGRETTES JACOB BANKS SYLVAN ESSO MATT MAESON BLACKBEAR DEJ LOAF NOTHING BUT THIEVES ODESZA SAN HOLO SKIP MARLEY SZA SON LITTLE HIGHLY SUSPECT GALANTIS R.LUM.R OH WONDER THE CHAINSMOKERS WELSHLY ARMS 6LACK AMINÉ AURORA CUCO KELELA POST MALONE RUSS ALISON WONDERLAND ALT-J CHROMEO ELOHIM FIRST AID KIT JAPANESE BREAKFAST JUNGLE SNAKEHIPS DAVID BYRNE ROLLING BLACKOUTS COASTAL FEVER
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12345
Yapping Skunk Ape
Posts: 75
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Post by 12345 on Jan 10, 2018 18:41:13 GMT -8
Here are the top 20 per festival (30 for Boston Calling and Coachella since we have so many crossovers with them) based on my numbers.
Shaky Knees (4 Crossovers)
MANCHESTER ORCHESTRA ALVVAYS FLEET FOXES QUEENS OF THE STONE AGE JACK WHITE THE MENZINGERS MIKKY EKKO CHARLY BLISS LILLIE MAE THE NATIONAL ALICE MERTON SIR SLY GRETA VAN FLEET JACOB BANKS DAVID BYRNE ROLLING BLACKOUTS COASTAL FEVER THE WAR ON DRUGS VANCE JOY THE FRIGHTS JAPANDROIDS
Gov Ball (4 Crossovers)
MANCHESTER ORCHESTRA BROCKHAMPTON EMINEM WESTSIDE GUNN & CONWAY ALVVAYS BELLY KHALID POND JACK WHITE THE MENZINGERS MIKKY EKKO TASH SULTANA DIRTY PROJECTORS MAGGIE ROGERS ALICE MERTON SIR SLY LANY HALSEY THE STRUTS KALI UCHIS
In Bloom (6 Crossovers)
QUEENS OF THE STONE AGE MIKKY EKKO MELVV SYLVAN ESSO MATT MAESON SON LITTLE HIGHLY SUSPECT DRAM LIL UZI VERT WOLF ALICE BROKEN SOCIAL SCENE LOUDPVCK MIJA MOON TAXI SHIBA SAN SLANDER T-PAIN THE FRIGHTS DHANI HARRISON INCUBUS
Boston Calling (11 Crossovers)
MANCHESTER ORCHESTRA THE KILLERS BROCKHAMPTON EMINEM WESTSIDE GUNN & CONWAY ALVVAYS NONAME PORTUGAL. THE MAN ST. VINCENT BELLY DANIEL CAESAR FLEET FOXES QUEENS OF THE STONE AGE KHALID POND JACK WHITE THE MENZINGERS PUSSY RIOT BIG THIEF PERFUME GENIUS TYLER, THE CREATOR DIRTY PROJECTORS MAGGIE ROGERS PARAMORE THUNDERCAT CHARLY BLISS LILLIE MAE THE NATIONAL (SANDY) ALEX G BRYSON TILLER
Hangout (6 Crossovers)
MANCHESTER ORCHESTRA THE KILLERS NONAME PORTUGAL. THE MAN ST. VINCENT MIKKY EKKO PUSSY RIOT TASH SULTANA ALICE MERTON RON GALLO GRETA VAN FLEET BLEACHERS TANK AND THE BANGAS MELVV HALSEY THE STRUTS BLACKBEAR DEJ LOAF NOTHING BUT THIEVES ODESZA
Bottlerock (4 Crossovers)
MANCHESTER ORCHESTRA THE KILLERS ALICE MERTON LANY BLEACHERS TANK AND THE BANGAS HALSEY THE STRUTS JACOB BANKS MATT MAESON OH WONDER THE CHAINSMOKERS WELSHLY ARMS MAGIC GIANT DHANI HARRISON INCUBUS ALEX LAHEY FLOR HUNDRED HANDED LOW CUT CONNIE
Bonnaroo (9 Crossovers)
MANCHESTER ORCHESTRA THE KILLERS BROCKHAMPTON EMINEM WESTSIDE GUNN & CONWAY DANIEL CAESAR KHALID POND MIKKY EKKO TASH SULTANA PARAMORE THUNDERCAT SIR SLY LANY RON GALLO MELVV KALI UCHIS KNOX FORTUNE MOSES SUMNEY THE REGRETTES
Coachella (15 Crossovers)
BROCKHAMPTON EMINEM WESTSIDE GUNN & CONWAY ALVVAYS NONAME PORTUGAL. THE MAN ST. VINCENT BELLY DANIEL CAESAR FLEET FOXES BIG THIEF PERFUME GENIUS TYLER, THE CREATOR TASH SULTANA SIR SLY LANY RON GALLO GRETA VAN FLEET BLEACHERS TANK AND THE BANGAS KALI UCHIS KNOX FORTUNE MOSES SUMNEY THE REGRETTES JACOB BANKS BLACKBEAR DEJ LOAF NOTHING BUT THIEVES ODESZA SAN HOLO
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Post by Pea on Jan 10, 2018 18:50:10 GMT -8
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12345
Yapping Skunk Ape
Posts: 75
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Post by 12345 on Jan 10, 2018 18:58:53 GMT -8
Haha ya, thats a lot to throw out there, but I'm sure a good chunk of the Sasquatch lineup is somewhere on those lists.
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Post by Professor Pancakes on Jan 10, 2018 19:00:29 GMT -8
The best part of doing all this work is how completely wrong it's all going to be when the lineup finally comes out. I respect the mathematical speculation hustle, though.
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12345
Yapping Skunk Ape
Posts: 75
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Post by 12345 on Jan 10, 2018 19:08:38 GMT -8
Ya this is definitely far from conclusive. All this does is give us a few good guesses like Brockhampton, Portugal the man, St. Vincent, Mikky Ekko, Tash Sultana, Fleet Foxes, Alvvways, etc, but it could just as likely be the bottom 4 names off every poster that make up the crossovers.
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Post by Professor Pancakes on Jan 10, 2018 19:10:46 GMT -8
Ya this is definitely far from conclusive. All this does is give us a few good guesses like Brockhampton, Portugal the man, St. Vincent, Mikky Ekko, Tash Sultana, Fleet Foxes, Alvvways, etc, but it could just as likely be the bottom 4 names off every poster that make up the crossovers. All it's conclusively proving is who are the least unique festival bookings this year. No doubt several of them will be at Sasquatch, though.
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Post by banana on Jan 10, 2018 19:15:21 GMT -8
Here are the top 20 per festival (30 for Boston Calling and Coachella since we have so many crossovers with them) based on my numbers. Shaky Knees (4 Crossovers) MANCHESTER ORCHESTRA ALVVAYS FLEET FOXES QUEENS OF THE STONE AGE JACK WHITE THE MENZINGERS MIKKY EKKO CHARLY BLISS LILLIE MAE THE NATIONAL ALICE MERTON SIR SLY GRETA VAN FLEET JACOB BANKS DAVID BYRNE ROLLING BLACKOUTS COASTAL FEVER THE WAR ON DRUGS VANCE JOY THE FRIGHTS JAPANDROIDS Gov Ball (4 Crossovers) MANCHESTER ORCHESTRA BROCKHAMPTON EMINEM WESTSIDE GUNN & CONWAY ALVVAYS BELLY KHALID POND JACK WHITE THE MENZINGERS MIKKY EKKO TASH SULTANA DIRTY PROJECTORS MAGGIE ROGERS ALICE MERTON SIR SLY LANY HALSEY THE STRUTS KALI UCHIS In Bloom (6 Crossovers) QUEENS OF THE STONE AGE MIKKY EKKO MELVV SYLVAN ESSO MATT MAESON SON LITTLE HIGHLY SUSPECT DRAM LIL UZI VERT WOLF ALICE BROKEN SOCIAL SCENE LOUDPVCK MIJA MOON TAXI SHIBA SAN SLANDER T-PAIN THE FRIGHTS DHANI HARRISON INCUBUS Boston Calling (11 Crossovers) MANCHESTER ORCHESTRA THE KILLERS BROCKHAMPTON EMINEM WESTSIDE GUNN & CONWAY ALVVAYS NONAME PORTUGAL. THE MAN ST. VINCENT BELLY DANIEL CAESAR FLEET FOXES QUEENS OF THE STONE AGE KHALID POND JACK WHITE THE MENZINGERS PUSSY RIOT BIG THIEF PERFUME GENIUS TYLER, THE CREATOR DIRTY PROJECTORS MAGGIE ROGERS PARAMORE THUNDERCAT CHARLY BLISS LILLIE MAE THE NATIONAL (SANDY) ALEX G BRYSON TILLER Hangout (6 Crossovers) MANCHESTER ORCHESTRA THE KILLERS NONAME PORTUGAL. THE MAN ST. VINCENT MIKKY EKKO PUSSY RIOT TASH SULTANA ALICE MERTON RON GALLO GRETA VAN FLEET BLEACHERS TANK AND THE BANGAS MELVV HALSEY THE STRUTS BLACKBEAR DEJ LOAF NOTHING BUT THIEVES ODESZA Bottlerock (4 Crossovers) MANCHESTER ORCHESTRA THE KILLERS ALICE MERTON LANY BLEACHERS TANK AND THE BANGAS HALSEY THE STRUTS JACOB BANKS MATT MAESON OH WONDER THE CHAINSMOKERS WELSHLY ARMS MAGIC GIANT DHANI HARRISON INCUBUS ALEX LAHEY FLOR HUNDRED HANDED LOW CUT CONNIE Bonnaroo (9 Crossovers) MANCHESTER ORCHESTRA THE KILLERS BROCKHAMPTON EMINEM WESTSIDE GUNN & CONWAY DANIEL CAESAR KHALID POND MIKKY EKKO TASH SULTANA PARAMORE THUNDERCAT SIR SLY LANY RON GALLO MELVV KALI UCHIS KNOX FORTUNE MOSES SUMNEY THE REGRETTES Coachella (15 Crossovers) BROCKHAMPTON EMINEM WESTSIDE GUNN & CONWAY ALVVAYS NONAME PORTUGAL. THE MAN ST. VINCENT BELLY DANIEL CAESAR FLEET FOXES BIG THIEF PERFUME GENIUS TYLER, THE CREATOR TASH SULTANA SIR SLY LANY RON GALLO GRETA VAN FLEET BLEACHERS TANK AND THE BANGAS KALI UCHIS KNOX FORTUNE MOSES SUMNEY THE REGRETTES JACOB BANKS BLACKBEAR DEJ LOAF NOTHING BUT THIEVES ODESZA SAN HOLO
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